The maritime treaty blocking peace in the Strait of Hormuz: Is it time for a rewrite?

Do we need to rewrite international maritime law to bring peace to the Strait of Hormuz?

Many observers see repeated Israeli commentary, such as former intelligence operative Danny Citrinowicz's claim on CNN, "No deal is better than a bad deal!", as evidence of Israel’s limited interest in negotiating with Iran. Some attribute this to expansionist ambitions and a refusal to recognise Iran as a rising regional power. While such debates matter, they may distract from a deeper structural issue: the maritime treaty UNCLOS (UN Convention on the Law of the Sea) may itself hinder progress. Without addressing this barrier, perhaps by rewriting UNCLOS, lasting peace in the Strait of Hormuz may remain unattainable.

Why UNCLOS Is the Real Barrier

“Unthinkable!” But is it? It may be inconvenient – yes. Nonetheless, is UNCLOS fit for purpose? The US, which is not even fully signed up to UNCLOS, still expects Iran to comply. Iran insists that the Strait is within its coastal waters (albeit shared with Oman). Iran demands recognition of its control. However, the structure of UNCLOS makes such recognition legally impossible. In short, Iran's demands are not within Trump's gift to give. This mismatch sits at the heart of the ongoing deadlock.

A Legal System Built by Power

International law, such as UNCLOS, is often presented as neutral and principled. In practice, powerful states wrote much of it. Many built their power through conquest, resource extraction, or force. This history shaped a legal system that mostly serves those who wrote the rules. They often use or ignore it as they see fit.

A System Under Strain

Today, international law is visibly fracturing. A UN‑mandated Commission of Inquiry has found that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza [1]. In a related development, the International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for Israeli leaders, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, for war crimes and crimes against humanity [2]. These are not abstract legal debates; they are findings about mass civilian suffering caused by state action. Despite this, these same state actors are running a similar playbook in Lebanon, apparently without impunity on the same world stage.

The Blockade Question

And what of the US‑led blockade in the region? The San Remo Manual, a modern restatement of blockade law, states that a blockade must not starve civilians or deprive them of essential objects for survival [3]. Against this backdrop, critics argue that the economic strangulation of Iran, combined with sanctions that wiped out years of growth, stretches international law to its limits. For example, the economy shrank by roughly 6% in 2018 and nearly 7% in 2019 [4]. Nevertheless, this economic attack continues.

Why the Strait Matters to the World

This context matters because the Strait of Hormuz is more than a narrow waterway; it is a vital route for the world. Each day, about 20 million barrels of oil and products move through it, which is roughly a quarter of all seaborne oil trade. In addition, large volumes of LNG also pass through [5]. As a result of recent disruptions, ship traffic has declined, and prices have risen. If a long conflict occurs, some models show a cut of up to 3% in global GDP, meaning trillions of dollars lost and, with it, the potential to shock the world into a deep depression [6].

The Case for Rewriting UNCLOS

Given the risks, perhaps the unthinkable warrants consideration. What if UNCLOS were reopened? What if the definition of “international waters” were updated for chokepoints where coastal countries handle security but get none of the economic benefits? What if countries in the region could negotiate new rules for transit or tolls that match today’s geopolitical realities?

Building on this idea, maybe by accepting the seemingly inevitable changing of the guards in West Asia, we can secure the international law needed to achieve a power balance that might finally lead to lasting peace.

A Necessary Disruption

Reopening UNCLOS would be disruptive. Yet the alternative – a frozen legal system unable to foster peace – could be worse. Embracing change might be the step needed for a stable and peaceful West Asia.

References

[1] UN Human Rights Council, Independent Commission of Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian Territory (2025).

[2] International Criminal Court, Arrest Warrants (2025).

[3] San Remo Manual on International Law Applicable to Armed Conflicts at Sea (1994).

[4] IMF World Economic Outlook (2019).

[5] UNCTAD Maritime Transport Review (2024).

[6] Global conflict‑energy scenario modelling (2024–2025).